Future Prospects
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[redacted] The current Iraqi chemical warfare agent production is nearing full-scale operation. The current production facilities at Samarra for the large-scale manufacture of the vesicant mustard and sarin should be completed by the end of 1985. The Iraqis already have at least a limited capability for filing artillery shells and aerial bombs. Consequently, by the end of 1985, Iraq could have a stockpile of 2,500 to 3,000 tons of chemical agent [redacted]
Moreover, we believe Iraq is conducting research into other types of chemical agents. [redacted] among the possibilities are soman (GD), VS or an an*logue of VX, an unspecified toxin, and a psycho-chemical such as BZ. We do not expect Iraq to develop new agents, but to exploit the work done by the United States and the USSR. We believe, therefore, that Iraq will add additional agents to its stockpile within the next 10 years. Limited biological agent research also may be under way [redacted] at both the Salman Pak and Samarra facilities. [redacted]
Iraq also may develop alternative chemical weapon systems. In particular, the development of a rocket or missile warhead for a long-range delivery system would complement existing systems. The objective would be to extend the range of an attack past the immediate battlefield while reducing the risks a**ociated with aircraft delivery. Iraq already has Scud surface-to-surface missiles with a range of 500 kilometers. Iraq may try to modify some of its existing Scud warheads to carry chemical weapons within the next decade [redacted]